THE famed “Nostradamus of Elections” has shared his final prediction for who the next president will be.
Allan Lichtman, who accurately predicted Donald Trump’s 2016 victory, shared who he think will win the upcoming race – and why.
“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States,” Lichtman told The New York Times.
“At least, that’s my prediction for this race,” he added.
The historian has become famous for his Keys to the White House method which uses 13 point true or false questions about the election race to form his near-perfect predictions.
“The keys absolutely will work. They are the constant northern star of political prediction,” Lichtman said.
If all 13 questions or statements, also known as “keys”, are found to be true, then the system predicts than the incumbent will win the election.
Such questions include if there is a “charismatic incumbent” and if there is currently a “strong short-term economy.”
While Harris is not technically the incumbent president, she can be viewed as such for the sake of Lichtman’s system as the current VP in the current presidential branch,
Lichtman’s key system predicts the incumbent party will win eight or more of the 13 statements are true.
He said the Harris campaign has eight “true” keys, meaning she is predicted to win in a still-close race.
But Lichtman has not shared his decision on two of the 13 keys – for if there is a major foreign policy failure, or a foreign policy success.
The historian these keys could rapidly change due to the government’s handling of the war in Gaza. Lichtman explained that even if these two keys flipped to Trump, he would still not be predicted to win as that would add up to five false answers.
The historian believes that one of the reasons Harris is likely to win in 2023, is the Democratic Party’s move to throw their support behind her and avoid a Primary after Joe Biden dropped out.
“The Democrats finally got smart and united overwhelmingly behind Vice President Harris,” he told the Times.
This meant Lichtman the key statement, “There is no primary contest for the incumbent party nomination,” is true.
Other true keys have included no third party challenger, a strong short term economy, major policy changes, and stronger long-term economic growth in the last two terms of Biden’s tenure.
In fact, Lichtman’s only confident false answers were for the midterm gains key, as the Democrats lost House seats, the incumbency key, as Biden is not running for re-election, and the incumbent charisma key.
Lichtman noted two keys that could swing either way.
The other keys that swung in Harris’s favor were no major social unrest and no White House scandal.
The 13 Keys to the White House
HISTORIAN Allan Lichtman predicts the winner of presidential elections by using his algorithm that consists of 13 true or false statements. If six or more statements are false, then the incumbent is set to lose the next election:
- The incumbent party has more seats in the House of Representatives after the midterm elections compared with the previous set of elections
- There is no primary contest for the incumbent party nomination
- The incumbent president is seeking a second term
- There’s no significant third-party challenge
- Strong short-term economy
- Strong long-term economy
- Major policy change enacted by the incumbent administration
- No social unrest
- No scandal
- No major foreign policy or military failure
- Major foreign policy or military success
- Charismatic incumbent
- Uncharismatic challenger
POLLS AT ODDS
Lichtman’s prediction has clashed with the current forecast on prediction market Polymarket.
The prediction market has placed Trump’s odds slightly over Harris at 53%.
Other polling data has painted a tight picture between the two candidates.
Harris has appeared to lead by around two points in the data from RealClear Polling.
The rivals have split polls in key swing states.
Polling has currently projected Trump to triumph in Arizona and North Carolina.
This data has also forecast Harris to take Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin.
Trump and Harris are currently tied in Pennsylvania polls.
PAST PREDICTIONS
Lichtman has correctly predicted every U.S. presidential election from 1984 barring one.
In 2000, he said Al Gore would win the popular vote, which happened, but George W. Bush took the White House after the controversial Supreme Court recount in Florida.
Lichtman has stood by his prediction and claimed Gore lost because of improper ballot counting in the state.
Aside from this, the scholar’s theory correctly predicted the infamous wins of presidents like Ronald Reagan’s second term, Barack Obama’s triumphs, and Biden’s 2020 victory.
Lichtman previously told The U.S. Sun that Republicans had a lot to worry about for November’s election.